Upcoming in Rocheport, Mo.
Predicting Tomorrow’s Flood Crest: Quantum Physics Meets The Dark Arts
Presentation by Kevin Low, National Weather Service Missouri River Basin Forecast Center
Kevin will join us to dig deep into the history of the National Weather Service’s work on weather predictions, explain the processes and models they use to generate river forecasts and weather products and use recent flood events to explain how and why these models can succeed and fail.
Time and Place
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Les Bourgeois Vineyards Bistro
View on map
Presentation by Kevin Low, National Weather Service, Missouri River Basin Forecast Center
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
- 7 p.m. presentation
- lower floor of the Les Bourgeois Vineyards Bistro in Rocheport, MO
- Map and Directions
If you intend on coming early to purchase an amazing dinner at Les Bourgeois Bistro before the presentation, PLEASE call to make a reservation at: 573-698-2300 and…tell them you are with the Big Muddy Speaker Series!
Presentation is FREE and open to the public!
For those of us that live by and work on the Missouri River, waiting for the latest river predictions from the National Weather Service can become an obsession. There is a collective Facebook gasp when projection graphs turn red and purple. Eventually the conversation turns to “How do they do this?”
The work of predicting river level responses to rain events involves predictions on how much rain will fall over large areas and where, how soil moisture and vegetative growth will effect runoff, the behavior of different tributaries in the basin and changes in the watershed since the previous similar flood event. The variables are mind boggling, and it can seem like a mixture of quantum physics and the dark arts.
Kevin Low, the Service Coordination Hydrologist for the NWS Missouri River Basin Forecast Center will join us to dig deep into the history of NWS’ work on weather predictions, explain the processes and models they use to generate river forecasts and weather products and use recent flood events to explain how and why these models can succeed and fail.
Kevin will also look into the future at both the long-term forecast for 2016 and the work of his colleagues into what climate change predictions could mean for Missouri River behavior.
Kevin Low is the Service Coordination Hydrologist for the National Weather Service Missouri River Basin Forecast Center in Pleasant Hill, MO. He is the liaison between his office, other NOAA offices, other Federal agencies, and State agencies within the Missouri River basin as well as the outreach person for the general public.
- 14020 W. Hwy BB, Rocheport, MO
- Take I-70 to the Rocheport, MO, exit (Exit #115). It’s the first exit east of the Missouri River.
- Head north toward Rocheport.
- After about a mile, turn left at the sign for Les Bourgeois Bistro. Follow the signs to the Bistro. You will probably need to park in the lot above the Bistro and walk the trail down.
- The presentations are held in upstairs in the restaurant. The restaurant is no longer open on Tuesdays but the bar is! You are welcome to bring your own food or snacks.
Resources and Links
Dig deeper for more info on this topic.
- Missouri River Basin Forecast Center website
- Link to create Missouri River prediction page of the gages you watch (NWS)
- Link of select Lower Missouri River gages to follow – bit.ly/lowermostages
- “Flood Risk in Mississippi Basin to persist – NOAA outlook” – by Julie Ingwerson, Reuters, March 17, 2016
- “Army Corps – Something has Changed in Red River” – by Dave Boucher, Shreveport Times, March 19, 2016
- “NOAA’s New Water Center will help Cities Predict Floods” – by Rachel Kaufman, Next City, July 9, 2015
The Big Muddy Speaker Series in Rocheport
is hosted by these wonderful partners.
- Missouri River Relief
- Friends of Big Muddy
- Columbia Fish & Wildlife Conservation Office (USFWS)
- Les Bourgeois Vineyards
- Big Muddy National Fish & Wildlife Refuge
Special thanks to Les Bourgeois Vineyards for giving us the opportunity to use their beautiful space overlooking the Missouri River. All speakers are presenting for free! Thank you all for sharing your knowledge with us!
The Big Muddy Speaker Series also takes place monthly in Kansas City and St. Charles.